Research on a diagnostic system of rural vitalization based on development elements in China

In 2017, the Chinese government implemented a national strategy of "Rural Vitalization" that sought to realize full-scale rural vitalization. However, is it possible to achieve vitalization for all the villages in China? How should their development potential be determined? This paper identified and analyzed the "element-composite" messages of rural development based on 99 exemplary sites of “Beautiful Villages” in China. Combined with the projection pursuit classification method, a diagnostic system of rural vitalization was established; then, Dehua County was taken as a case study for an in-depth analysis. Based on national data analysis, the final results indicated that livelihood resources (LR), agglomeration effects (AE), location and transportation (LT), cultural/natural landscapes (CN), and economic circumstance (EC) are essential elements for successful rural development. Additionally, EC was the only exogenous element, while the remaining elements were endogenous. Furthermore, the villages with better EC presented urbanization rates of 38∼82 % and Engel coefficients of 29∼41 % in their counties; exemplary sites lacking LR, CN, LT, and AE account for 13.13 %, 19.19 %, 26.26 %, and 60.61 % respectively, so the indispensability of these elements decreases progressively in sequence. Only 2 % of villages rely on single element for success, therefore, the composite pattern of development element was also critical; 10 out of 16 types were found to successfully facilitate village development, among which, the type of R-a-L-C (32.32 %) and R-A-L-C (15.15 %) were considered as the greatest potential patterns for vitalization. Finally, by means of the diagnostic system, the ratio of representative villages for high-low potential in Dehua County is evenly split; then, development paths, and land use policies that match with paths were proposed, on the basis of development potential and “element-composite” condition of themselves.     

Labor migration and the decoupling of the crop-livestock system in a rural mountainous area: Evidence from Chongqing,China

Massive out-migration of rural labor force brings both challenges and opportunities to crop-livestock integrated production system (crop-livestock system) in smallholder economy. Compared with previous researches that have paid major attention to the effect of labor migration on either crop production or livestock husbandry, this study considers the mediating role of crop production in predicting the effect of labor migration on livestock raising. Our econometric estimation based on a 2012 survey of 974 rural households in Chongqing, a mountainous region of China, showed the following. (1) The massive migration of rural labor force had led to significant increase in farmland abandonment and considerable changes in the pattern of livestock raising. (2) The livestock raising number per household began to differentiate, with the livestock system separating from the traditional crop-livestock system and becoming a specialized business. (3) In terms of the pathways through which rural labor migration exerts impact on livestock raising number, though the increased opportunity costs of rural labor greatly reduced farmers’ willingness to raise livestock, the decoupling of the crop-livestock system partly alleviated the declining trend in the livestock raising number because of the availability of household labor force freed from cropping via farmland abandonment. These findings have important policy implications for rural development and agricultural restructuring in mountainous areas of China, and provide references for other developing countries.     

Pains and gains of environmental management system certification for the sustainable development of manufacturing companies: Heterogeneous effects of industry peer learning

Environmental sustainability is a growing global concern. Environmental management systems (EMS) could be an effective strategic tool to help firms deal with their sustainable development. However, whether EMS certification pays off financially and how it takes effect can be debated. Thus far, these questions remain largely under‐researched. In particular, the effects of EMS certification on financial performance are inconclusive, and the reasons explaining the effects are underdeveloped. This study aims to enrich the current research by exploring the mediating and moderating roles from the perspective of cost‐efficiency trade‐offs to reveal how EMS certification affects financial performance. Applying a PROCESS procedure analysis and causal mediation analysis to a sample of 1,751 Chinese listed manufacturing firms from 2008 to 2016, this study shows that the effect of EMS certification on firms' financial performance is insignificant because their operating costs burden increases while their marketing efficiency and managerial efficiency improve. For the first time, this study demonstrates the moderating role of industry peer learning, as the mediating effects decrease with the growth of industry peer learning.     

化肥价格变化对粮食价格的影响研究--基于省际动态面板数据模型的系统GMM检验

基于我国粮食价格与化肥价格变动趋势的分析,运用2006年~2017年省际动态面板数据模型和系统GMM方法,实证检验了化肥价格变动对粮食价格的影响。结果表明:化肥价格变动对粮食价格存在显著的正向影响,在考虑化肥价格影响下,农业生产服务、种子等农资价格对粮食价格也存在显著的正向影响,机械化农具和农药价格对粮食价格不显著,"价补分离"政策对粮食价格存在显著负向影响。因此,在化肥减量行动背景下,适度调控化肥价格,避免化肥价格上升挤占粮农利润,大力发展农业生产性服务业和种子业,继续实行"价补分离"政策,提高补贴精准性,减少农民投入成本。     

基于BP人工神经网络中国光伏产业贸易摩擦预警研究

建立有效的贸易摩擦预警系统有利于中国新兴产业的健康发展,有利于中国实施制造强国战略。将警兆信号法与人工神经网络相结合,从宏观经济形势、产业供给能力、双边贸易状况、市场需求水平等四个维度切入,构建了中国光伏产品出口贸易摩擦预警系统模型。预警分析表明,模型的预警效果与现实拟合较好,具有可行性。从模型的预警结果来看,2019年~2020年中国输美光伏产品贸易摩擦警情均低于轻警级别,仍面临一定的贸易摩擦风险。     

网购食品消费者选择行为的影响因素

利用1 790份网络调查问卷数据,采用相关分析、交叉分析等统计方法,研究网购食品消费者选择行为,分析网购食品市场渗透率不高、用户黏性不足的主要原因,结果表明,消费者个性特征差异会导致对网购食品的不同态度,进而影响消费者对网购食品的选择行为;良好的网购环境、物美价廉的食品、优质的网购服务,是促使消费者选择网购食品的主要因素,对网购食品安全的担忧、习惯于传统购物方式、网购维权难度大,是抑制消费者选择网购食品的主要因素,尤其是网购食品"难维权、维权难"可能会放大消费者对网购食品产生的消极态度。为此,应加强网购食品多主体协同监管,消除消费者怀疑心理和不放心态度;建立以消费者需求为中心的网购食品质量安全供应链管理体系,推动线上市场和线下实体店紧密结合、融合发展;完善网购食品维权制度,畅通维权渠道。     

交通运输行业超限超载与黑车治理困境及突围——来自赏金猎人制度的借鉴

交通治理现代化是交通强国建设的重要支撑。交通运输行业超限超载与黑车现象屡禁不止的现实困境,一方面源于早期制度设计阶段遗留的逻辑障碍,一方面源于目前缺乏行之有效的规则来对此类问题进行限制和制约。尽管各级政府对黑车治理高度重视并采取了多种措施,但依然存在黑车辨识难、管理成本高、效率低等问题,尚未达到我国现有施政路线的要求。鉴于此,可抓住管理型政府向服务型政府转型的契机,遵循合法、合理、高效、经济的原则,通过比较分析美国赏金猎人制度来形成制度改革的借鉴。赏金猎人模式作为国外长期摸索得到的经验,有很多值得参考之处。现阶段,赏金猎人模式在我国已经具备试行的基础条件,不仅能够开拓视野,为当前我国面临的交通运输行业治理问题提供制度层面的启示,而且更为重要的是,能够为解决我国超限超载与黑车治理问题提供新的思路。当然,为避免简单借鉴或全盘照搬而导致的水土不服等落地性难题,需要围绕黑车治理困境和超限超载运输这两个具象背景,对不同国别法律解释上的差异加以创新并实现本地化,使之在立法层面稳固的前提下展示其优越性。     

新冠肺炎疫情对供应链弹性管理的启示

新冠肺炎疫情将对中国产业供应链的持续竞争力形成挑战,使企业面临人力短缺、成本增加、现金流紧张和供应链不确定性增高等问题,在企业供应链的原材料供应、采购管理、生产复工、物流以及市场等方面均会产生一定的负面影响,这对供应链弹性管理提出了新的要求。在政府层面,应建立综合、协同性的产业供应链风险管理和沟通机制,构建基于事件的产业供应链预警体系,保障企业供应链运营的资源体系,推动产业平台和产业集群带动供应链参与者建立供应链弹性体系。在企业层面,应建立基于企业事件的供应链预警体系,根据供应链预警信息和状况,合理规划供应链运营方式,运用数字化能力建设企业供应链弹性体系,稳定供应链运营,提升供应链效率。     

美国贸易法301条款的修订及其启示

美国贸易法301条款是一项可以单方启动调查并认定他国法律、政策、行为违反协定或者不公平继而实施报复制裁的对外贸易措施,分为普通301条款、特别301条款与超级301条款。301条款最初简明规定了总统的权力和国会的否认权,但其后的修订对301条款的内容进行了扩展并使其更具体化。特别是301条款根据《2015年贸易便捷和贸易促进法》做出重大修改,涵盖了WTO体系尚未涵盖但最近已纳入自贸协定的新领域。然而,这些针对外国贸易活动的单方决定和措施附加等至今备受争议,且已对强调多边贸易争端解决的WTO体系构成严重威胁。美国贸易法301条款的修订主要围绕着美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)的措施、决定、对外国政府相关政策的监督、确认贸易自由化的优先顺序以及知识产权不适当保护的应对等内容进行。针对美国不断启动的301条款调查,我国应与美国积极开展沟通与协商,加强与美国产业界的接触和交流,发挥全球化程度高的企业的作用,力争以谈话和谈判化解矛盾;促进产业转型升级,重新审视“走出去”战略;履行加入WTO时的承诺,完善全方位的开放体制;合理拓展中国企业的海外利益,完善风险防范机制。     

科技馆免费开放评估指标体系研究

本文根据免费开放科技馆的功能属性，确定了科技馆免费开放评估指标体系的构建原则，考虑不同角度评估工作的重点，设计了适应不同主体和要求的科技馆免费开放评估指标体系，包括免费开放科技馆自评估指标体系、各级科协主管部门自评估指标体系和科技馆免费开放第三方评估指标体系，最后对主要指标和考察要点进行了总结说明。本文的研究成果，可以为免费开放科技馆和科协主管部门开展自评估以及第三方评估提供标准和依据，规范免费开放科技馆的评估和运行管理，为中国特色现代科技馆体系建设提供支持，为科技馆事业的可持续发展提供参考。